2026 NHL Draft Order: McKenna, Stenberg & the Two-Name Draft
McKenna and Stenberg are the only two locks in a top-heavy class. Inside the projected 2026 first-round order, the big board, the cliff after two, and how to watch June 26-27 in Buffalo.
Every draft has a consensus No. 1. The 2026 class has a consensus No. 1 and a consensus No. 2, and then it has a cliff. Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg sit so far above the rest of the board that scouts openly admit their order stops being consensus around the fifth pick. That is the defining feature of this draft, and it changes how every team behind Toronto should think about June 26. We call it the Two-Name Draft: two prospects you build a franchise around, then a wide, flat tier where need, nerve and a little luck decide who wins the night.
Key Takeaways
- Two franchise prospects: Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg are the consensus top two at any position — and the gap to No. 3 is the story of the Two-Name Draft.
- No. 1 is locked: Toronto won the lottery and McKenna to the Leafs is treated as a near-certainty across every consolidated board.
- Best player ≠ No. 2 pick: San Jose holds the second pick and a glaring blue-line need, so the best skater available (Stenberg) may slide while a defenseman goes second.
- Variance starts at five: scouts say opinions diverge sharply from the fifth pick on — the flat tier is where this draft is won or lost.
- Where + when: the 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft is June 26-27 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, Round 1 on the 26th.
The Big Board: Top 10 Prospects (by talent)
This is talent, not team fit — the order a pure scout would draft in. The Two-Name Draft shows up immediately: the drop from No. 2 to No. 3 is the widest in the lottery range.
| # | Prospect | Pos | Last team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavin McKenna | LW | Penn State (NCAA) |
| 2 | Ivar Stenberg | LW | Frölunda (SHL) |
| 3 | Keaton Verhoeff | D | North Dakota commit |
| 4 | Chase Reid | D | Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) |
| 5 | Caleb Malhotra | C | Brantford (OHL) |
| 6 | Carson Carels | D | WHL |
| 7-10 | The flat tier | — | Where boards stop agreeing |
McKenna and Stenberg are the top two prospects available at any position — but opinions start to vary as early as No. 5. — consolidated post-combine boards, NHL.com (2026)
Projected First-Round Order (Top 10)
Now apply team need to talent, and the board bends. The clearest example is at No. 2, where the best player available and the pick most teams expect are not the same name.
| Pick | Team | Likely selection |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Maple Leafs | Gavin McKenna, LW |
| 2 | San Jose Sharks | Chase Reid, D (need over BPA) |
| 3 | Vancouver Canucks | Caleb Malhotra, C |
| 4 | Chicago Blackhawks | Ivar Stenberg, LW (a faller's gift) |
| 5 | New York Rangers | Keaton Verhoeff, D |
| 6-10 | The flat tier | Where mocks split — pick your scout |
The lottery already did the dramatic part. Toronto climbed to win the No. 1 pick, San Jose holds No. 2, and the pre-lottery odds leaders — Vancouver, Chicago and the Rangers — round out the top five, as our draft-lottery results breakdown laid out. From there the projection is exactly that, a projection: the flat tier means any team picking sixth through tenth could come away with what another board ranks third.
No. 1: McKenna to Toronto
Gavin McKenna is the rare prospect a scouting service flags as separated "by a considerable margin." The Penn State winger posted 51 points in 35 NCAA games in his draft year, a freshman dominating against grown men, and NHL Central Scouting placed him atop its North American board well ahead of the field. Toronto winning the right to pair that talent with its core reset the entire Atlantic Division conversation, and we broke down the franchise implications in the Leafs' lottery-win analysis.
What makes McKenna a true No. 1 and not just a No. 1 by default is that he would headline almost any class of the last decade. In the Two-Name Draft, he is the first name — the one pick on June 26 with zero suspense.
The Cliff: Why the Board Scatters After Two
Stenberg is the second name. After him, the descent is steep enough that the No. 2 pick itself becomes a philosophy test. San Jose holds it, and the Sharks' most pressing need is defense, not another winger — which is why the best player available may not be the second player chosen. We mapped that exact tension in San Jose's No. 2-pick dilemma: take the elite winger who fell into your lap, draft the blue-liner you actually need, or trade the pick to a team that values it more.
That is the Two-Name Draft's gift to everyone outside the top two. Because the tier from roughly third to fifteenth is so flat, a needy team can reach for fit without "wasting" a pick, and a patient team can let a top-five talent slide into its lap — the way Stenberg could fall to a fortunate club at four or five. It also makes this a seller's market for the No. 2 and No. 3 picks: in a thin year, the few teams convinced they can grab a franchise piece will pay a premium to move up, which is why draft-floor trades tend to spike when the board is top-heavy.
How and When to Watch
The 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft runs June 26-27 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, with the first round on Friday the 26th and rounds two through seven on Saturday. The opening pick is a formality; the show starts at No. 2, when San Jose decides whether the Two-Name Draft becomes a three-team trade-up auction. For the wider summer context the draft kicks off, see where the money sits in our cap-space War Chest Index, what each club needs in the Need-Fit Map, and the open-market board on our 2026 free-agent list. Every pick and trade lands live on our trade tracker, and the offer-sheet board covers the other way teams add young talent this summer.
Sources and Reporting
- NHL.com: post-combine mock, "opinions vary starting at No. 5," top-of-board order
- ESPN: 2026 prospect rankings — McKenna, Stenberg, Carels
- ESPN: what makes McKenna the expected No. 1 (Penn State production)
- NHL.com: McKenna-to-Toronto mock and intrigue behind him
- Bleacher Report: McKenna, Stenberg and the best wingers in the class
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?
Gavin McKenna, the Penn State winger, is the consensus No. 1 and is widely projected to go to the Toronto Maple Leafs, who won the 2026 draft lottery. NHL Central Scouting ranked him the top North American skater by a considerable margin after he posted 51 points in 35 NCAA games in his draft year.
What is the Two-Name Draft?
It is our framework for the 2026 class: Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg are the two clear franchise-level prospects, and there is a steep drop-off to the rest of the board. Scouts say opinions diverge sharply from around the fifth pick, so the draft is essentially two locked names and then a wide, flat tier decided by team need.
Who has the No. 2 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?
The San Jose Sharks. Because their biggest need is defense rather than another winger, the best player available (Ivar Stenberg) may slide while San Jose takes a defenseman such as Chase Reid, or trades the pick to a team looking to move up — a real possibility in a top-heavy draft.
When and where is the 2026 NHL Draft?
The 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft is June 26-27 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. Round 1 is Friday, June 26; rounds 2 through 7 follow on Saturday, June 27.
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